Is There a Scenario Where Nolan Arenado Makes Sense for Phillies?

An anonymous executive opined to ESPN's Jesse Rogers that they believe Nolan Arenado will wind up being traded to a major-market team this winter, with the Phillies a club that could make sense as a potential landing spot. 

"I don't see how Arenado stays there," one voter said. "They'll work around his no-trade clause, and he'll end up in one of the bigger markets -- L.A., Philly or New York."

This isn't baseless, as Derek Goold of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported earlier this month that the Cardinals planned to see what was out there on Arenado. St. Louis is taking a step back at the MLB level in 2025, and planning to divert some of their resources from payroll in the majors to player development. 

Paul Goldschmidt is now a free agent, so his $26 million will be coming off the books. The Cardinals could trade closer Ryan Helsley before his contract year, but it appears Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray aren't interested in waiving their no-trade clauses. So Arenado is a natural player to look to if you're looking to trim payroll. 

Arenado, who is entering his age-34 season, is no longer at the height of his powers. He hit 16 home runs and drove in 71 runs in 2024, but posted just a .719 OPS. Mind you, this is a player with a career .857 OPS. With that said, Arenado is one of the greatest defensive players in MLB history, and the 10-time Gold Glover still posted six defensive runs saved and nine outs above average a year ago. There's definitely still value there with Arenado, who posted a 3.1 WAR this past year, per FanGraphs. 

While he wouldn't be cheap from a payroll sense, Arenado's contract is hardly a non-starter. He's owed $52 million over the next three seasons. As part of the eight-year/$260 million contract he originally signed with the Colorado Rockies, Arenado would count $32 million towards the luxury tax threshold over those seasons because that's his average annual value. But he'd be getting an average of $17.33 million per year, and my understanding of his contract is that the Rockies are still chipping in $4 million per year in each of the next three seasons. 

If Arenado was a free agent right now, he may not get three guaranteed seasons. But the amount of money he's making annually — $21 million in 2025, $16 million in 2026 and $15 million in 2027 — really isn't that much in the grand scheme of things. 

Nolan Arenado 3-run bomb 💣

(via @Cardinals)pic.twitter.com/nHcvirw4k1

— B/R Walk-Off (@BRWalkoff) April 13, 2024

Of course, this will be a moot point if the Phillies don't trade Alec Bohm. Although the reporting of both Jeff Passan and Buster Olney of ESPN last week leads you to believe there's a very real chance Bohm isn't back in 2025. In that case, the Phillies would need a third baseman. 

That's not to say that the Phillies should trade Bohm for Arenado — unless Helsley is coming along as part of a larger trade, that wouldn't be a good deal. But if you trade Bohm for an outfielder, reliever or starting pitcher, Arenado could be an interesting pivot at third base. 

There is a reality that he's now in his mid-30s, and would be joining a team that's increasingly older. But he's still productive, and the commitment you would be making to him would pale in comparison to what it would take to land Alex Bregman, who will get at least five years guaranteed in free agency. Arenado's glove at third base may also help you to cover up some of the defensive shortcomings that Trea Turner has had at shortstop since joining the Phillies. 

One thing the Phillies would have to do is convince Arenado to waive his no-trade clause. If he would want a reworked contract to do so, that would decrease how attractive of a target he is. Also, if all things are equal, Arenado may prefer to go to the Los Angeles Dodgers, given that he's a native of Newport Beach. 

But Arenado is still a productive player. His contract isn't an albatross. He has a tremendous reputation as a grinder throughout the league. The Phillies have a lot of moving parts right now, with Bohm at the top of that list. Should the Phillies trade Bohm, Arenado isn't a solution that should be scoffed at.