The Phillies Pitching Has Been the Least Talked about Positive Development in the past Few Weeks

If there's one thing we know how to do well in Philadelphia when it comes to our sports teams, it's making a mountain out of a mole hill. And while it's usually exacerbating a negative into something far bigger than it needs to be, sometimes we can get over-confident and puffy-chested about something and then deflate like a Tom Brady football from circa 2014 when smacked with a dose of reality.

I've spent more time in the past three weeks talking to people about what the Phillies are going to do about Taijuan Walker, why the lineup can't hit, what's wrong with Jose Alvarado and injuries to Alec Bohm and Bryce Harper than anything else surrounding a team that has won 14-of-20 games and is only 1/2 game behind the L.A. Dodgers for the best record in the entire sport. 

We like to live in the extremes in this market where we are either bulletproof or crushed with worry and dread at all times and are more afraid of the cushy middle ground where rational thought, context and nuance reside as harmonious neighbors because as happy as their little, isolated community is, its existence lives well outside the comfort zone of the masses. 

Because we'd rather dwell on things that are either intangible, unmeasurable or flat out unimportant.

When do we find out that the Alec Bohm injury is more serious than they’re telling us?

— Steve (@FlippinBats17) September 4, 2024

Consider the examples I already gave:

• Taijuan Walker - It's easy to get caught up in this guy because of his albatross of a contract, but really, does it matter when you get down to brass tacks? He wasn't going to be a part of the October plans anyway other than the possibility of the last guy in the bullpen (like 2023) as an "in case of emergency" mop-up guy to save the bullets of the regulars out there in the event f a lopsided playoff affair. So... why are we so worried about it again?
• The lineup can't hit - Quick, without looking it up, do you know wat month so far this season the Phillies had their best batting average as a team? Would you be surprised if I told you it was August (.265)? Yes, they struggled against the Braves in August, and yes, individual guys went into more prolonged slumps than they usually do, but the Braves have good pitching and the guys who were struggling the most are guys with a pedigree of being among the best hitters in the sport when they are going well. And yet, there was the team hitting better than they did in April and May when everyone thought they were going to win 117 games and break the all-time record. So, yeah, misleading narrative there.
• Can't trust Jose Alvarado - Like you, I have concerns about his lack of control. Then you couple in that he needed to be away from the team for the better part of a week to take care of something personal and family-related that required him to go back to Venezuela, and you're thinking, "His head's not in it this year and we need it to be." But, despite all his troubles, Alvarado is still lethal against lefties (they are hitting just .127 against him with a .417 OPS) and there's still enough time to get him mechanically right against righties so that he can be called upon with confidence in high-leverage situations against certain pockets of batters in the postseason.
• Alec Bohm's hand - I got one guy on X who keeps insisting to me that the Phillies are covering up a more serious injury to Bohm and that he has a hamate bone injury and is going to miss the rest of the season. First of all, that's not true. Although that injury was a fear right away, x-rays were negative. First he had some soreness and inflammation. Then a strain of some sort was identified in there and the Phillies have been cautious because they don't want him to hurt it further. But the fact that they didn't put him on the I.L. tells you all you need to know - even though his missed some time, he won't need to miss 10 days total - so why force him to miss more time than is necessary. He'll play during this upcoming Marlins series.
• Bryce Harper's elbows - Your friendly neighborhood On Pattison Phillies duo of Kelly and SanFilippo were the first to point out Harper was wearing that brace/sleeve again. Then Todd Zolecki at MLB.com talked to Harper exclusively to find out he's been dealing with some soreness. Then we all saw him wince in pain and drop his bat when he swung and missed at a couple pitches on Tuesday and went into a state of emergency. It only got worse when he was plunked on his other elbow on Wednesday and needed to be removed from the game. There was talking heads suggesting he should be forced onto the I.L. before he got hit yesterday. That's where the line was crossed. Do you honestly believe the Phillies would let their $330 million investment play hurt if there was a danger of hurting himself further? Don't be ridiculous. Has whatever is nagging him impacted his power? Sure. But does that mean he should be taken out of the lineup? Heck no. Since Aug. 14 Harper is hitting .300 his on base percentage is .380 and his OPS is .808. No homers, sure, but you want to take that production out of the lineup just because you want to take him out of bubble wrap a month from now? Stop.

@Phillies need 4 of 4 from the Fish here, don’t want to see Bryce Harper’s face anywhere near the plate today or tomorrow. Let’s roll #KodyClemens

— Mordecai (@OVOMordo) September 5, 2024

See, I've talked so much about the things everyone else wants to talk about that I've buried my own lede here. I fell right into the trap. Because the reality is, the thing that you all should be focusing on - and the thing that should have you most excited now, is the Phillies collective pitching among guys who actually will pitch in October. 

You've heard the saying, "How do you get to Carnegie Hall? Practice. Practice. Practice." Am I right?

Well, there's a less known, but similar turn of phrase:

"How do you get to the World Series? Pitching, Pitching. Pitching."

And if you can weed your way through the noise above and see what's really going on with the Phillies right now, you'd see that they are focusing on exactly what they should be focused on right now - ensuring their pitching is both healthy and humming at the same time to tackle what will face them in October. 

Cristopher Sanchez was just the latest example in seven excellent innings in the Phillies 4-2 win over Toronto on Wednesday. But let's not let one start try to tell the complete story. 

Rob Thomson had high praise for Cristopher Sanchez after the lefty pitched seven solid innings. 👊 | @WapnerNewman pic.twitter.com/kjMbeFgsQb

— NBC Sports Philadelphia (@NBCSPhilly) September 4, 2024

Instead, let me make my point statistically for you. 

In the last 20 games, the Phillies are 14-6, which is an excellent .700 winning percentage. Want to know what's even better than that? Their record in that span when guys not named Walker or Tyler Phillips are starting. In those games, a predominance of which have bene started by guys who WILL pitch in October, the Phillies are 13-2. 

Collectively, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez, Cristopher Sanchez (and one spot start by Kolby Allard) has resulted in a 2.41 ERA by the starters and a 1.06 WHIP. Oh, and they are averaging six innings per start. Pretty strong for this late in the season. 

As for the bullpen in those 20 games - again not counting guys who won't pitch in October, so removing Yunior Marte, Michael Mercado, Tyler Gilbert and yes, that one, scoreless, pitching appearance from Weston Wilson the bullpen has a 1.79 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP.

Add it all up and the pitching staff of guys who you will see in October have done this in the past 20 games:

150 IP, 126 H, 39 R, 36 ER, 32 BB, 157 K, 17 HR, 2.16 ERA, 1.05 WHIP

Here's the kicker... 

From July 12th, which was the start of that weird Oakland series right before the All-Star Break, through August 13th, a 5-0 shutout loss at home to the Marlins, which was clearly this team's rock bottom, this team's pitching, not it's hitting, was dreadful. 

These same guys (plus a few others who didn't screw up enough to skew the numbers so terribly) had an ERA of 5.61 and a WHIP of 1.44 across 26 games and 229 1/3 innings. 

All along, this is the thing we should have been monitoring more than anything else. Could they get their pitching right? Could it be done in time for October? All that other stuff is fine as a secondary conversation, but more than anything this is all going to be about pitching when the chips are down. 

And the Phillies seemed to have figured it out.

Consider:

• In his last four starts, Aaron Nola has allowed a total of four runs - two of those starts came against the Braves and one against Houston.
• Zack Wheeler has 27 strikeouts and a 1.80 ERA in his last four starts.
• Cristopher Sanchez has thrown 27 1/3 innings in in his last four starts (nearly seven per) and has a 2.60 ERA
• Of the eight primary relievers in the bullpen, none have allowed more than two runs to score in the last 20 games.

This kind of production is why the Phillies still have the best odds to win the World Series. There's no other team who can match their pitching production and depth. 

Can it fall back off the table 23 games? Sure. Nothing is certain. But it's obvious that the Phillies had a plan all along for their pitchers and were willing to sacrifice a little in the middle of the season to have them going on all cylinders in September and October. 

And if you were ever going to be uber-confident about something related to your sports teams, it should be about this.