Sep 23, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto (10) celebrates his two-run home run during the second inning against the Chicago Cubs at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images
The Phillies locked up a top-two seed on the National League side of the MLB postseason bracket on Wednesday. We know the Phils will have a bye for the wild card round of the playoffs, and we know they will have home field advantage in their divisional series. Game one of their NLDS will be played at Citizens Bank Park on October 5.
But with a handful of games left to play, three questions remain:
1. Will the Phillies secure the NL's number one seed and guarantee home field advantage in the NLCS?
2. Will the Phillies secure a better record than all AL teams and guarantee home field advantage in the World Series?
3. Who will be the Phillies' NLDS opponent?
Only the Dodgers and Padres can challenge the Phillies for the top seed in the National League. The Phils own a tiebreaker over both teams because they won the head-to-head season series against each.
The Phillies have three games remaining, all against the Nationals in DC this weekend. The Dodgers will host the Padres on Thursday night, then play three games in Colorado. The Padres will play the aforementioned game in LA on Thursday, then travel to Arizona for three more.
- If the Phillies go 3-0 against the Nationals, they will secure the top seed with 97 wins unless the Dodgers go 4-0 in their games. The Padres would not be able to catch the Phillies.
- If the Phillies go 2-1 against the Nationals, they will secure the top seed with 96 wins unless the Dodgers go 3-1 or better in their games. The Padres would not be able to catch the Phillies.
- If the Phillies go 1-2 against the Nationals, they will secure the top seed with 95 wins unless the Dodgers go 2-2 or better in their games. The Padres would not be able to catch the Phillies.
- If the Phillies go 0-3 against the Nationals, they will secure the top seed with 94 wins unless the Dodgers go 1-3 or better in their games OR the Padres go 4-0 in their games.
(The Padres can only get the top seed if they go 4-0, the Dodgers go 1-3 or 0-4, and the Phillies go 0-3. Highly unlikely, but mathematically possible.)
The Yankees and the Guardians are the only AL teams that could get home field advantage over the Phils in the World Series. Both of the AL teams own a head-to-head tiebreaker against the Phillies.
While the Phillies play their three games in DC this weekend, the Guardians will host the Astros for three final games. The Yankees have four games remaining, all at home: one game vs. the Orioles, then three vs. the Pirates.
- If the Phillies go 3-0 against the Nationals, they will secure home field advantage in the World Series with 97 wins.
- If the Phillies go 2-1 against the Nationals, they will secure home field advantage in the World Series with 96 wins unless the Yankees go 4-0 in their games. The Guardians would not be able to catch the Phillies.
- If the Phillies go 1-2 against the Nationals, they will secure home field advantage in the World Series with 95 wins unless the Yankees go 3-1 or better OR the Guardians go 3-0.
- If the Phillies go 0-3 against the Nationals, they will secure home field advantage in the World Series with 94 wins unless the Yankees go 2-2 or better OR the Guardians go 2-1 or better.
The Phillies will play one of the following teams: Dodgers, Padres, Brewers, Mets, Diamondbacks, or Braves.
When the Dodgers or Padres win the NL West, they will earn a bye and will be removed from this mix. The Braves are currently on the outside of the postseason tournament looking in, but they could still win a spot at the expense of the Mets or Diamondbacks.
The Brewers are locked in as the NL's three seed, and in the wild card round they will play whichever team ends up with the six seed. The winner of the Brewers/six seed matchup will then face the two seed.
The four and five seeds will play each other in the wild card round. The winner of that matchup will play the one seed.
Because the Phillies may end up with the one or two seed, and because the four/five/six seeds are in flux, all possible NLDS matchups are still in play.
If the postseason started today, the bracket would look like this:
