Apr 23, 2021; Denver, Colorado, USA; Philadelphia Phillies right fielder Bryce Harper (3) during the third inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports Ron Chenoy
Bryce Harper has been in the public eye since he was 16, and therefore is extremely well media trained. He's often guarded with what he says. And when he puts something interesting out into the world, it's never by accident.
That makes a quote that the two-time NL MVP gave to The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal about the possibility of ever returning to the outfield an interesting one:
“I talked to (the Phillies) this offseason about that, just in case a guy was available (at first) that we needed to have, needed to get,” Harper said. “I’d be more than open to it if we had a guy like that, who was going to change our lineup or change the demeanor of our team. They like me at first base. But I’d go out there to have a guy who was going to play first base and hit 35 or 40 homers.
“When Pete (Alonso) was on the block still, I kind of sat there and was like, ‘Hey, why not?’ When we talked about it, I kind of just reiterated to (the Phillies) and Scott (Boras) that I’m willing to move out there if it’s going to help us. I love playing first base. It’s been great. But if it’s going to help us win, I’d go back out there.”
It should be pointed out that Harper and Alonso are both represented by Scott Boras. Additionally, Rosenthal notes that the Phillies "never got serious about Alonso," who ultimately returned to the division-rival New York Mets on a two-year/$54 million deal that includes a player opt-out after 2025.
Still, these comments are worth filing away.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has said he will test the free agent market next offseason after he and the Toronto Blue Jays failed to reach a long-term extension before the start of Spring Training. The four-time All-Star revealed that he and the Blue Jays never came close to agreeing on a pact. So there's a very real chance that a year from now, he's playing for a different team.
Could that team be the Phillies? Who knows.
If the Phillies decline José Alvarado's $9 million option for 2026, they'll have over $60 million coming off the books between him, J.T. Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber and Ranger Suárez. In theory, they could have more financial flexibility next offseason than they did this winter.
At the same time, it's hard to believe that none of those four would be back next year. Maybe if the Phillies plan to make a run at Guerrero, they hold off on a Schwarber extension. But they'll still have a difficult time finding a better option at catcher the next few seasons than J.T. Realmuto, even if he's no longer at the height of his powers. If Alvarado's option is declined, the Phillies will have to probably invest similar money on another relief pitcher.
The other reality here is that the Phillies and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski are well aware of how risky paying first basemen on long-term deals can be.
The Phillies gave Ryan Howard a five-year/$125 million extension in April of 2010, almost two full seasons before he could become a free agent. They got burned when his body broke down before the new deal even began.
Dombrowski and the Detroit Tigers gave Prince Fielder a nine-year/$214 million deal prior to the 2012 season. The deal had the fingerprints of late owner Mike Illitch — who had previously employed Cecil Fielder, Prince's father — on it. Fielder was productive in two seasons with the Tigers, and Dombrowski managed to parlay that into a trade with the Texas Rangers for star second baseman Ian Kinsler. That turned into one of the most lopsided deals in recent memory when a neck injury prematurely ended Fielder's career just three years later.
Under Dombrowski's leadership, the Tigers also gave Miguel Cabrera an eight-year extension prior to the 2014 season. With the two years left on his contract, it amounted to a 10-year/$292 million deal. Considering Cabrera had won back-to-back AL MVPs, you're again left to wonder whether ownership had influence on this deal, which tied Cabrera to the Tigers through his age-40 season and ultimately aged pretty poorly.
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Still, given that both he and his dad have consistently raked against the Phillies, it's hard not to be at least a little intrigued about the possibility of having a Guerrero in red pinstripes. Guerrero is going to get a megadeal next offseason, likely in excess of $400 million. But he's got an .863 OPS in six years and will only be entering his age-27 season when he hits the open market.
If the Phillies signed Guerrero, they could move Harper back to the outfield for a brief period and potentially shift Nick Castellanos to DH for the final season of his five-year/$100 million deal. You can start to talk yourself into the possibility pretty easily.
The feeling here remains is that Harper is overwhelmingly likely to spend most of the remainder of his career either at first base and/or DH. He's taken well to playing first base, and it puts less stress on his body than being in the outfield. If the Phillies are going to make a major free-agent investment next offseason, Rosenthal pointed out that Kyle Tucker might be the target that makes more sense because he wouldn't require Harper moving off of first base.
But Harper spent much of the pandemic-shortened 2020 season saying the Phillies needed to sign Realmuto, and they did. He publicly flirted with Trea Turner in 2022, and the Phillies wound up signing him as a free agent. Again, nothing that he says is by accident. And these comments may be an indication that at the very least, Harper is going to try to push the Phillies to add another big bat next offseason.
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